Analyze for Impact Portfolio
***This data is fictional and created for portfolio purposes. It is all for demonstration purposes.
GLD Skincare Revenue Prediction Q4 2025 - Q3 2026
GLD Skincare is a small, local, women-owned company that opened early 2021, and they are wanting to look at exactly how their performance has been year over year and where they are heading over the next year. They have big goals as a company to push when it comes to revenue but, they are unsure if how on track they are for meeting those goals. They have monitored and been looking at quarterly and yearly performance since opening, but they have not done pattern tracking nor any analytics and long-term visualizations. Let’s dive into their data on where they have been and where they are predicted to be going:
Based on GLD Skincare over the last 4 years, they have been consistently increasing their revenue, but there appears to be some seasonality to their revenue based on the how their revenue goes through cycles (highs and lows) during the year. Let’s take a look at what they are predicted to do in the next 4 quarters (1 calendar year):
Over the next 4 quarters (1 calendar year), they are expected to increase their revenue and follow the same seasonal trends they have been following in previous years. Which is towards the end of the year is the highest revenue (Q4), and then Q1 will have the lowest revenue. They have another quarter in which they usually see the highest revenue, and that is in Q3. End of Q3 2026 and towards the end of Q4 2025 will be the biggest times of the year for GLD Skincare.
While they have seasonality, their growth type is following a linear pattern.
Then, what is most important is knowing how good the model fits and is predicting the next 4 quarters. Looking at goodness of fit, this model is having an error of 4.7% - 6% (***MAE % of mean and RMSE % of mean). Meaning, this is an excellent predictive model for GLD Skincare revenue data, and with confidence, I can say that the next 4 quarters are predicted with great accuracy.
Appendix
So, that GLD Skincare is able to see exactly what to expect for their revenue sales for the next 12 months, here are the forecasted values along with the upper and lower bounds. For example for the month of December 2025, it is predicted that revenue will be $38,062, but it could be anywhere between $36,252 - $40,109.
The model identified key moments where the trend shifted. These are shown as the most recent 6 changepoints, which may reflect business events, seasonality transitions, or external shocks. This is good for the business to reflect and look back on and see what was going on at this time.
